DOWN have never lost to Kerry in championship. Kerry have never lost an All Ireland quarter-final. Modern history against history of a more ancient variety. Tradition and superstition over realpolitik. Which is it going to be? Taking the Henry Kissinger position there can only be one winner. It has to be Kerry.

They've got the experience, the players, the pedigree... but niggling away at the back of Kerry minds will be that stark statistic. Played four. Lost four. No county has had such an effect on the Kerry psyche, Tyrone aside, before or since. For this bunch of players, however, it's little more than folk history.

They have no memories of that Down team sweeping across the border and sweeping the Kingdom aside on three seperate occasions. Most probably don't even have any memory of the defeat in the All Ireland semi-final in 1991 and if they do it's probably fuzzy. It's nice to think that tradition counts. It doesn't.

If Kerry win on Satuday it's because they're the better team, if they lose it means that Down are. No more, no less. The realpolitik, then, suggests that the fates have shined kindly on the Kingdom yet again. Like last year, when the Kingdom appear to be at their most vulnerable they look to have be handed the most favourable possible draw.

This leaves us with two posers: are Kerry really all that vulnerable and are Down really that good a draw? The answer to the first question must be that yes, Kerry are a little vulnerable right now. Think back to the Munster championship. Kerry would hardly have beaten Cork without Paul Galvin and they would hardly have beaten Limerick without Tomás Ó Sé. Not only are Kerry going into a do-or-die game without their two most dynamic players, but their absences also create a whole other set of problems for Jack O'Connor.

Without Ó Sé Kerry's defensive shield has to be rejigged, a situation made even more difficult by the injury to the Kerry manager's first choice defensive replacement Padraig Reidy. The likely solution now is to bring in Aidan O'Mahony to start his first championship game of the season.

It's unlikely to be a straight replacement for the An Ghaeltacht man. O'Mahony has never been comfortable operating wide right (or left) close to the line, instead the Rathmore man is expected to man the centre-back berth with Mike McCarthy, who's more versatile, moving out to the wing.

Ostensibly neither move is in in-self going to affect Kerry in the negative. At the same time having to rejig two thirds of your half back line just ahead of your first knock-out game is not an ideal situation. Still if there's any two players who can pull it off it's O'Mahony – a two time All Star award winner it shouldn't be forgotten – and McCarthy.

Then there's midfield. It might be an exaggeration to describe Kerry's midfield situation as a crisis, but it's certainly in flux right now. The partnership of Anthony Maher and Seamus Scanlon didn't work. Neither played well in the Munster final.

That's self evident, as indeed was the impact of Micheál Quirke upon his introduction. It's a surprise then to hear that the Strand Road man might not be handed the starting berth so many expected he would be following his barnstormer in Killarney. Instead David Moran is being tipped to replace Maher alongside Scanlon.

Moran's inter-county career to date has been decidely hit and miss. This is his single greatest chance to make the kind of impact he's been expected to ever since he came on the scene. That's pressure. It's pressure that Anthony Maher wilted under in the Munster final.

The experience of the last couple of games suggests that neither of the starting two midfielders will finish the game. Hardly ideal. The again having Micheál Quirke, who surely must have felt his time had come to start a big game in Croke Park, and Anthony Maher, itching to make ammends for the Munster final, coming off the bench with points to prove isn't undesirable either.

There's also the small matter of the four week break since the Munster final. In between then and now Down have played three All Ireland qualifiers, and no amount of challenge games and A versus B sessions in Fitzgerald Stadium can match that. That's just one of the reasons why this Down side have a better chance than most people gave them at first glance.

Kerry have problems at midfield. Down have a serious midfield in Ambrose Rogers and the precocious Kalum King. Kerry's defence is a litte up in the air. Down have a talented and settled attack. An attack, which despite the early loss of Benny Coulter through injury against Sligo in the last round of the qualifiers, still managed to rack up a massive 3-20. Coulter is expected to be back in the starting fifteen for the game in Croke Park.

They racked up 3-20 with Martin Clarke, hailed as one of the brightest young prospects of his generation following a successful spell in the AFL, only scoring one point from play. Coulter's replacement, Ronan Murtagh, by the way scored 1-5 from play in just 25 minutes. Okay, Sligo were pretty woeful having to play again just six days after their defeat by Roscommon, but still this was impressive stuff.

Even though it wasn't in evidence against the Yeats county, Down have something of a soft underbelly. An underbelly that one would expect players of the quality of Declan O'Sullivan, Colm Cooper and Kieran Donaghy to exploit, but even here Down aren't as callow as is oftentimes believed.

Dan Gordon, formerly a top notch midfielder, has been operating for much of the championship as a full-back. He seems ideally placed to deal with the threat of Donaghy. He is big and strong and will be able to compete with and beat the Tralee man to the dropping ball and even if Donaghy does get hold of the ball Gordon is no slouch.

With a strong midfield they'll get possession, with the forwards they have they'll get scores, it could, could, just be enough to cause one of the upsets of the century – even if the history books tell us to expect such a result. There's a reason, however, that on first glance this looked the best possible draw for the Kingdom.

Aside from that performance against Sligo, they've not been all that impressive. They struggled over a very poor Donegal side in Ulster before bowing out tamely to Tyrone. In beating Longford and Offaly in the qualifiers they hardly set the world alight.

Despite whatever problems they may have right now, Kerry have the players and experience to win this game. That's what they'll do. They might not do it by as wide a margin as some expect them to, but they will win. By two or three points.